CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-02-25T01:25:00-CME-001)

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) 
##
## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-25T23:03:00Z
## Message ID: 20140225-AL-007
## 
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

##Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.

Update on notification 20140225-AL-006.  Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Spitzer, STEREO B and may have glancing blow at MESSENGER and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- Spitzer between about  2014-02-26T08:21Z and 2014-02-27T04:33 (average arrival 2014-02-26T14:54) for 100% of simulations. 
- STEREO B between about 2014-02-26T16:25Z and 2014-02-27T18:15Z (average arrival 2014-02-27T01:44Z) for 50% of simulations.
- MESSENGER between about 2014-02-25T19:06Z and 2014-02-26T05:36Z (average arrival 2014-02-25T23:18Z) for 13% of simulations (glancing blow).
- Mars between about  2014-02-28T05:44Z and 2014-02-28T21:23Z (average arrival 2014-02-28T13:48Z) for 8% of simulations (glancing blow).

Additionally the CME flank is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-02-26T10:59Z and 2014-02-27T18:58Z (average arrival 2014-02-26T22:15Z) for 83% of simulations. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate).

Links for the ensemble details of the modeled event:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_anim_tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_arrival_Spitzer.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_arrival_STB.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_arrival_Mess.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_arrival_Mars.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_arrival_Earth.gif

## Notes:
SWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the following links are histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.

For the full details of the modeled event please go here:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/Detailed_results_20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057.txt

NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer

Data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.

Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.

The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.

For questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center 

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement